The Arctic Silk Road
The Arctic Silk Road
Opportunities abound for US and Canada, if they know how to seize them.
Hi,
Welcome to Decade of 2020, a newsletter with a relentless focus on how the next 10 years will affect the middle class. Forewarned is forearmed, they say. If you’d like to sign up, you can do so here. Or just continue to read…
Have you ever seen those YouTube videos that “expose” a sinister conspiracy to co-opt legitimately elected governments and form a New World Order, dominated by a supranational entity? I have. Apart from the funny background score and interwoven B&W mushroom cloud clips, most for some reason, unmistakably include the wily old fox Henry Kissinger as the lead architect of this evil globalist agenda. Well, guess what? If you were to read the history of past empires, you’d already know World Order has in fact been changing dramatically roughly every ninety or so years on average for the past five centuries.
We are in the middle of such a tectonic shift; one that is occurring in many dimensions and on multiple frontiers. A crucial piece of this 1000 piece jigsaw puzzle is firstly, the creation of, and secondly, the complete hegemony over a newly accessible, partially navigable sea route. It is a long game jointly played by Russia and China based on a deep scientific understanding of ice melting at the North Pole with a cunning vision of exploiting the change in “climate” to their advantage. The 1000 jigsaw puzzle is called the Belt and Road Initiative. And the new sea route is known as The Northern Sea route. It will likely cut the 21,000 kilometres travel distance from East Asia to Europe (via the Suez Canal) to 12,800 kilometres; reducing transit time by almost 15 days (shown in blue color).
The Arctic Ocean covers an area of more than 12 million square kilometres, in which coastal States and other States share maritime rights and interests in accordance with international law. The continental and insular land territories in the Arctic cover an area of about 8 million square kilometres, with sovereignty over them belonging to Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the United States, respectively. In 2018, China published a white paper detailing their intent and vision for the Arctic. It is quite a read.
“Geography determines diplomacy.”
Charles Maurice De Talleyrand, French political strategist and Napoleon’s key advisor.
Realizing their common strategic interest, the Russia China tag-team has become active in the Arctic since 2010. The Western media, in all its arrogance, has foolishly played its part in undermining the sheer scale of Russian military installations in the region.
These military bases serve multiple purposes but primary of them is to safeguard access to energy assets. Most notably, the Yamal LNG facility located in the Sabetta Region of the Arctic Circle (slideshow - **must see**). China, along with France’s Total is one of the major investors in this LNG plant, which is currently exceeding the design capacity of 16.5 million tons per annum. In 2019, Yamal LNG produced 18.4 million tons of LNG, with China once again consuming a healthy portion of it.
So, it’s all about LNG then! For the West, that may be the surface perception. For Russia, it is about her history, her glory and her pride in returning to being a regional naval superpower. For China, it is a raw power play, a forward projection of its increasing might and it ties neatly into the 100 year marathon, that began back in 1949. It is about commerce also in that it is an alternate route to markets in Europe for Made in China products.
It is only obvious that the risen power and its allies have become increasingly worried in the wake of these unprecedented developments. The US, despite staying busy dousing the fires in the Middle East, has not entirely lacked action. But it has consciously chosen to put more onus on the Arctic States - for now.
In his political campaign for the top position in the Canadian government, when Andrew Scheer begged people’s attention toward this matter through a halfhearted effort, the words of a wise Roman stoic came to my mind:
“Fate leads the willing, and drags the unwilling.”
Seneca, Roman statesman and philosopher
When Scheer’s lackluster campaign limped to an end, the issue was never really brought up by the party that was ultimately elected to power, and for good reason. In her heyday, Canada used to be the third largest naval power - at the time of the second world war; today, the Philippines has a bigger blue-water navy.
Buy Greenland!
On a fine morning in August of 2019, Washington DC woke up to magenta skies and to a rather unusual demand by the Commander-in-Chief. Trump wanted to buy Greenland. The news cycle kicked off, almost immediately, into high gear.
The corrupt beltway media, instead of educating its viewers, made such a mockery out of the issue that any brain cells burnt thinking why would be instantly deemed worthless. Neither of those that jumped into the cesspool of tribal behavior on Twitter in supporting or ridiculing Trump took the pain to search where Greenland was on the face of the globe. If they did, they would have realized its strategic location in the Arctic, or noticed that historically, the US has made multiple attempts to buy Greenland from its legal owner, Denmark - as recently as 1941, for a 100 Million US$.
“Defense of Greenland against attack by a non-American Power is essential to the preservation of the peace and security of the American continent and is a subject of vital concern to the United States of America.”
Denmark–US Agreement for the Defense of Greenland, 1941
Quite a strong verbiage for a mostly barren, icy piece of land, with less than 20,000 inhabitants (at the time), thousands of miles from the US mainland. Does that make you go hmmm too?
The idea appeared as if it were organically germinated at the surface but it had emerged from a few layers deep inside the establishment, with Trump merely acting as their real estate agent. It didn’t work out this time but the Deep State or the permanent government (civil and military bureaucracy), which is neurotically insecure about America’s dwindling hegemony, will continue trying in the future.
More Icebreakers please!!
According to The Canadian Encyclopedia, icebreakers were first used in the Canadian Arctic in the 1920s to back up claims of Canadian sovereignty over the Northwest Passage and Arctic Archipelago.
Today, the situation is vastly different. The West finds itself lagging decades behind Russia whose icebreaker fleet consists of over 40 vessels - many of them brand spanking new. Last year, Russia doubled down and introduced a game changer in form of a nuclear powered icebreaker, which in layman terms means it doesn’t require refueling like conventional icebreakers.
“The US is in dire need of more icebreakers for assured access to the ice-covered Arctic waters: it currently relies on only one medium icebreaker, Healy, and one heavy icebreaker, the recently reactivated Polar Star.”……….
………what is remarkable is that even if this new heavy icebreaker were to be built in time to replace the Polar Star, US icebreaker fleet will still fall short of operational requirements and pale in comparison to those of other Arctic States.”
From an Essay titled Strong Foothold or on Thin Ice? US Strategies for Development, Environmental Stewardship, and Security in the Arctic by Mihaela David
Clearly, besides bringing its unfathomable natural gas reserves to the Asia Pacific, Russia intends to assume the leadership of ensuring that the Arctic sea lane stay open and safe for operation all year round. China will gladly pay them a healthy fee so that Chinese cargo ships can ply the route freely and fearlessly and bring their goods into Europe.
Opportunity
Now a few of you are scratching your head and saying to yourself, “How the heck does this affect me?”
It will, if we persevere a little harder. Here’s an idea! How about we all sit down at our desks, open our laptops and write to our respective MP or our respective Senator and ask what they are doing to grab a seat at the table of this new game. How about we inform them there are employment and entrepreneurial opportunities in building out our side of the infrastructure? How about we remind them that countries that are situated far, far away are trying hard as hell to get in so we might as well too, given our proximity to the Arctic. Or even easier, we send them a link to this article.
I believe every one of us is already aware that a well-functioning democracy can remain so only through active public participation. Otherwise, it regresses into an oligopoly where the public is mostly passive and busy watching UFC on their sofas, washing down chicken wings with pints of beer (modern day equivalent of Rome’s Bread and Circuses).
Stay safe!
The Arctic Silk Road
Mind-blowing! No other words.